Red Listing and Indicators

Current Activity

In the past, species’ status was often assessed on expert opinion, or by counting the number of occupied grid cells. Our recent work has used computer simulations of the recording process to inform how we can estimate the trends in species status over decadal timescales. BRC is working with recording schemes, government agencies and partner organisations to derive quantitative trend estimates and other metrics for use in Red Listing and the development of biodiversity indicators to assess the 2020 ‘Aichi targets’.

Key Outputs

Building upon earlier atlases, trend estimates were presented in recent atlases for ladybirds (2011), hoverflies (2011), dragonflies (2014) and bryophytes (2014). We continue to work with recording scheme experts to extend the availability of trend information to a much wider set of species groups. The State of Nature Report¹⁴², to which BRC contributed trends for over 1,000 species, highlighted declines in UK wildlife. The Priority Species Indicator¹⁴⁵ tracks changes in the status of over 200 species of conservation concern.

Growth in threatened species status assessments

Growth in species over time — Figure: Nick Isaac, CEH.

The cumulative number of UK taxa (species and subspecies) that have been formally assessed against criteria for conservation prioritisation.

Provisional extinction risk assessment of 1026 species using biological records.

Proportions of species in extinction categories — Figure: Nick Isaac, CEH

Species were assessed against IUCN criterion A2c, based on rates of decline in frequency of occurrence since 2000. The categories are Critically Endangered (CR: >80% decline), Endangered (EN: >50%), Vulnerable (VU: >30%), Near Threatened (NT: >20%) and Least Concern (LC: stable or increasing).

The Priority Species Indicator, using biological records

Cover of UK Biodiversity Indicators in Your Pocket — Photo: © JNCC

For the first time in 2013, the UK Government published a biodiversity indicator based solely on opportunistic biological records data¹⁴⁵. The indicator included ~230 insects (mostly moths & bees) listed as conservation priorities by the four national governments of the UK.

Future Challenges

Sophisticated statistics make it possible to estimate quantitative measures of species’ trends (IUCN criterion A) and range size (criterion B) using biological records. In doing so, these models make a number of assumptions about how the data are collected. As analytical tools become more widely adopted, our challenge is to harmonize how criteria are applied across taxa and regions. Clear guidelines are needed to resolve conflicts between model results and expert opinion in order to provide robust species trend information.

References

599	Beckmann, B., Purse, B.V., Roy, D.B., Roy, H.E., Sutton, P.G. & Thomas, C.D. (2015) Two species with an unusual combination of traits dominate responses of British grasshoppers and crickets to environmental change. PloS ONE, 10, e0130488.
600	Pocock, M.J.O., Newson, S.E., Henderson, I.G., Peyton, J., Sutherland, W.J., Noble, D.G., Ball, S.G., Beckmann, B., Biggs, J., Brereton, T.M., Bullock, D.J., Buckland, S.T., Edwards, M., Eaton, M.A., Harvey, M.C., Hill, M.O., Horlock, M., Hubble, D.S., Julian, A.M., Mackey, E.C., Mann, D.J., Marshall, M.J., Medlock, J.M., O'Mahony, E.M., Pacheco, M., Porter, K., Prentice, S., Procter, D.A., Roy, H.E., Southway, S.E., Shortall, C.R., Stewart, A.J.A., Wembridge, D.E., Wright, M.A. & Roy, D.B. (2015) Developing and enhancing biodiversity monitoring programmes: a collaborative assessment of priorities. Journal of Applied Ecology, 52, 686–695.
601	Stewart, A.J.A., Bantock, T., Beckmann, B., Botham, M.S., Hubble, D.S. & Roy, D.B. (2015) The role of ecological interactions in determining species ranges and range changes. Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 115, 647–663.
622	Burns, F., Eaton, M.A., Barlow, K.E., Beckmann, B., Brereton, T.M., Brooks, D.R., Brown, P.M.J., N. Fulaij, A., Gent, T., Henderson, I.G., Noble, D.G., Parsons, M.S., Powney, G.D., Roy, H.E., Stroh, P., Walker, K.J., Wilkinson, J.W., Wotton, S.R. & Gregory, R.D. (2016) Agricultural management and climatic change are the major drivers of biodiversity change in the UK. PLoS ONE, 11, e0151595.
628	Cook, A.A. (2015) A Review Of The Hemiptera Of Great Britain: The Aquatic And Semi-Aquatic Bugs (Dipsocoromorpha, Gerromorpha, Leptopodomorpha & Nepomorpha). Natural England Commissioned Report Necr188. Natural England.
629	Bantock, T. (2016) A Review Of The Hemiptera Of Great Britain: The Shieldbugs And Allied Families (Coreoidea, Pentatomoidea & Pyrrhocoroidea). Natural England Commissioned Report Necr190. Natural England.
637	Stroh, P., Leach, S.J., August, T.A., Walker, K.J., Pearman, D.A., Rumsey, F.J., Harrower, C.A., Fay, M.F., Martin, J.P., Pankhurst, T., Preston, C.D. & Taylor, I. (2014) A Vascular Plant Red List For England. Botanical Society of Britain and Ireland, Bristol.
642	Maes, D., Isaac, N.J.B., Harrower, C.A., Collen, B., van Strien, A.J. & Roy, D.B. (2015) The use of opportunistic data for IUCN Red List assessments. Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 115, 690-706.
683	Dennis, E.B., Morgan, B.J.T., Roy, D.B. & Brereton, T.M. (2016) Urban indicators for UK butterflies. Ecological Indicators.
684	Dyer, R.James, Gillings, S., Pywell, R.F., Fox, R., Roy, D.B. & Oliver, T.H. (2016) Developing a biodiversity‐based indicator for large‐scale environmental assessment: a case study of proposed shale gas extraction sites in Britain. Journal of Applied Ecology.

Biological Records Centre